20/20 Behind Sight!

WOW, 20 years since we first voted in Namibia. We are all still here and not doing so badly! But it was this 20 year interval that got me thinking as it seems, on reflection, to conveniently divide life into the four stages of man. Infancy, adolescence, adultery and, well something!

OK, someone is going to point out that I suggest adolescence ends at 40! Our Youth Council obviously agrees with this; they retire at 40! But the adultery stage is when things start happening! Born in the late 40’s it almost seems that really significant global change hinges around this 20 year divide. Born into the time of the UN being formed, Bretton Woods, the UK National Health Service began, Land Rovers appeared and born into coldest and snowiest UK winter ever! A period of recovery and hope following World War II.The late 60’s saw the Jumbo jet, the Concorde, moon landings, computers as proof of the success of science melding to application – technology arose coincident with major social changes – rock ‘n roll, rebellious changes in social norms (LSD, free love and flowers). The political cold war and de-colonisation was in full swing; protest movements thought they could change the world; technology was the hope.Massive growth of industrial and financial entities created forces that unleashed human creativity, a wealthy middle class and increasing materialism. It also represented the decay of community and family life as competitive forces demanded extra income to satisfy the economic monster as a requisite for stability and continued employment for the rising tide of professional politicians.It was the end of the 80’s when all these dynamics came together. Berlin Walls, Iron and Bamboo Curtains with their multiple confusion of cross continental alliances, especially in emerging post colonial countries, did their job of limiting co-operative activities. Sporadic wars and political posturing at these interfaces created enough low level diversions to prevent major conflict.The collapse of the Soviet empire, softening of Chinese isolationism and the rising wealth and ambition of the West created the pot pourri for where we are today. Namibia’s opposing forces suddenly found allies who provided guns and money disappeared while others found the ‘Communist threat’ that justified intervention in Namibia had evaporated. Realpolitik took over; Namibia’s agonising struggle for independence suddenly happened in a few months as parties realised the geopolitical mega shift needed compromise. So 20 years ago we voted just as the Berlin Wall was coming down!Western political giants prevaricated! Not so the financial, industrial engine of the West who instantly reacted to the challenge of newly freed countries, unencumbered by laws, desperate for capital and technology, crawling with natural resources and massive untapped markets. Happily (?) the communist czars understood capitalism and with the surviving repressive organs of state created criminal empires based on the theft of state assets. This, together with an unprincipled, greedy and criminally minded West provided the ‘Devil’s Brew’ that has lead to where we are today. Under the thumb of financial thieves, global industrial monsters and organised crime working in collusion with the politicians!The lesson for the next 20 years is that changes in our ‘macro future’ are likely to be unforeseen, traumatic and badly managed; but we will survive. The threats are three billion unhappy people, an economic system based on constant growth, a planet with declining resources and a political process unable to act!20 years ago I remember sitting at the International in Oshakati with an UNTAG East German soldier; he had just lost his country! Let’s not lose our planet.csmith@mweb.com.na