The Need for Advanced Drought Forecasting and Planning

BY: SELMA IILONGA and OLUIBUKUN AJAYI

Recurring droughts in Namibia have not only crippled the agricultural sector but have severely affected the livelihoods of its people.

Notable droughts in 1992, 2013, and in 2019 – the the worst in 90 years – led to the declaration of national emergencies.

By the end of 2019, nearly 100 000 livestock had died, and agricultural production hit an all-time low, exacerbating food insecurity for many households.

In 2024, Namibia is once again in the grip of a severe drought, prompting the government to declare another state of emergency.

Agricultural drought, characterised by prolonged periods of insufficient soil moisture, has far-reaching consequences for Namibia.

Recent reports indicate that national cereal production has plummeted to approximately 72 150 metric tonnes (MT), a 53% decline from 153 012 MT the previous year.

The commercial farming sector has been particularly hard hit, with production dropping by 68% from 111 000 MT to 35 200 MT.

Agriculture supports around 70% of Namibia’s population and contributes significantly to the GDP, and these declines underscore the critical need for improved drought forecasting and planning.

THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE

The economic impact of drought is compounded by changing climate patterns.

The Namibia Meteorological Service’s Climate Bulletin for March 2024 reported below-normal rainfall across most of the country from October 2023 to April 2024.

Predictions from the German Climate Service Centre suggest that total precipitation rates could decrease by as much as 19%, while temperatures may rise by 1.7°C to 5.4°C by the 2080s.

These projections highlight the growing threat climate change poses to Namibia’s food security and economic stability.

INADEQUACIES AND CONSEQUENCES

Historically, inadequate forecasting strategies have led to devastating consequences.

During the 2015-2016 El Niño event, Ethiopia’s inaccurate drought predictions allegedly resulted in delays in humanitarian aid, leading to severe food and water shortages, widespread famine, displacement, and increased mortality.

Similarly, in southeast Morocco, a 2023 assessment of flood hazards revealed that current hydraulic modelling approaches were insufficient for accurately assessing flood risks in arid regions, leading to inadequate preparedness and response.

These examples underline the importance of accurate and timely disaster forecasting.
In Namibia, the stakes are particularly high.

The nation’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture means that even minor variations in rainfall can severely affect food production and livelihoods.

Without accurate forecasting, farmers are unable to prepare for droughts which will inadvertently lead to significant crop and livestock losses, reduced economic stability, and increased reliance on government aid.

To address these challenges, there is an urgent need to adopt advanced drought forecasting tools.

Artificial intelligence models, particularly deep learning algorithms like Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), offer promising solutions for drought prediction and management.

These technologies have the potential to provide more accurate and localised forecasts, which are crucial for both farmers and policymakers in Namibia.

ADVANCED GIS MODELLING

For farmers, advanced drought modelling serves as an early warning system, allowing them to prepare in ahead and adjust their practices to mitigate losses.

With localised predictions, they can optimise water usage and irrigation, select drought resistant crops, and manage planting schedules more effectively.

This can help reduce crop and livestock losses, leading to greater economic stability and better access to agricultural insurance and support programmes.

For policymakers, accurate drought forecasts are essential for strategic planning and resource allocation.

Enhanced predictions enable more timely and efficient emergency response plans, which are crucial for mitigating the impact of drought on communities.

Moreover, these forecasts can inform the development of sustainable agricultural practices and technologies thereby contributing to Namibia’s overall climate resilience and adaptation strategies.

Incorporating advanced GIS-based drought modelling approaches offers significant benefits.

Policymakers can gain a more comprehensive understanding of drought patterns and their potential impact by integrating spatial data with advanced modelling techniques.

This allows for more targeted interventions, such as the strategic placement of water resources and developing region-specific agricultural policies.

GIS-based models can also help identify areas most vulnerable to drought, enabling more effective disaster preparedness and response strategies.

CONCLUSION

With the increasing severity and frequency of droughts, there is an urgent need to adopt robust GIS-based drought modelling and prediction systems.

They offer the potential to significantly improve the accuracy and timeliness of drought predictions which allows for better preparation and response.

Immediate action from all stakeholders is vital.

The Namibian government, in collaboration with research institutions and the private sector, must invest in the development and implementation of these advanced forecasting tools.

In this way, Namibia can strengthen its agricultural sector, enhance resource management, and improve emergency response efforts.
It will allow us to be better equipped to face the challenges of future climate extremes.

– Selma Ndeshimona Iilonga is a final year masters student in spatial sciences, and Oluibukun Ajayi is a senior lecturer in geoinformation technology, both at the department of land and spatial sciences, Namibia University of Science and Technology. The views expressed here are entirely theirs and not those of Nust