Nandi-Ndaitwah Leads, But SWAPO Faces Parliamentary Dominance Loss

Swapo presidential candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has taken the lead in the race to State House, early results released by the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) yesterday show.

Ruling party to lose parliamentary dominance

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah 78 208

Panduleni Itula 45 440

Bernadus Swartbooi 11 375

However, experts say the ruling party will lose its dominance in the National Assembly.

Nandi-Ndaitwah has so far secured 50% of the votes counted in 25 constituencies.

According to the latest tally released by the ECN, Nandi-Ndaitwah leads with 78 208 votes while her rival, Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) president Panduleni Itula, won 30% with 45 440 votes.

The votes were counted from 23 constituencies for the presidential ballot, and 25 for the National Assembly election results.
Results from the remaining 73 (out of a total 121) constituencies will be announced this week.

Landless People’s Movement (LPM) leader Bernadus Swartbooi is third in the race with 11 375 presidential votes or 10% of the total.

ECN chairperson Elsie Nghikembua yesterday advised Namibians to be patient with the announcement of the final winner.

“We, therefore, appeal to all Namibians to continue exercising patience and understanding as we complete this crucial phase.

“The hallmark of a credible election is not speed but accuracy and transparency,” she said.

Nghikembua said the voting process was treated with integrity.

“We are fully aware of the anticipation across the country as we await the complete results of these elections. However, it is important to underscore the complexity of this process. “The commission is dedicated to ensuring that every vote cast during the electoral process – whether during special voting, on the main voting day, or during the extended voting period – is treated with the highest level of integrity,” she said.

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY RESULTS

In the National Assembly election results, Swapo is leading with 82 825 votes, while the IPC is in second place with 27 007 and the LPM is third with 10 999 votes.

These results are from the votes tallied in 25 constituencies so far.

TIGHT RACE

Political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah predicts that Swapo will likely fall short of its goal of securing a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, citing growing voter dissatisfaction and a competitive election landscape.

“Based on the current results, it’s clear that Swapo and Nandi-Ndaitwah are performing well. However, I don’t think Swapo will achieve its two-thirds majority this time. There’s been growing dissatisfaction with their governance, and many voters seem to be leaning towards alternatives” he says.

While Swapo has historically dominated Namibian politics, Kamwanyah suggests this election reflects a shift in voter sentiment.

“While Swapo might still lead overall, it’s unlikely they’ll reach their target of dominating parliament. The trend so far suggests a more competitive election,” Kamwanyah says.

Political analyst Henning Melber has cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from Namibia’s 2024 election results, warning that procedural flaws have cast a shadow over the legitimacy of the process.

“The fact remains that any results will be questioned on the basis of the procedural flaws of the elections,” he said.

Melber says that the presidential race appears much tighter than Swapo had projected, with the party falling short of its goal of overwhelming dominance.

HUMBLE PIE

“Even if the results suggest that Swapo will remain in power, it’s time to eat humble pie,” he added.

Melber says the elections, held over three days, has left democracy as the ultimate casualty.

“Legitimacy and trust in democracy are the collateral damage, leaving nobody as a winner,” Melber said.

As of yesterday afternoon, results show the current official opposition party, the Popular Democratic Movement trailing at fourth place with 7 000 votes for leader McHenry Venaani’s presidential run, and 7 881 votes for the National Assembly.

Affirmative Repositioning party president Job Amupanda takes the fifth place with 2 202 presidential votes, and 7 380 votes for the National Assembly.

The United Democratic Front of Namibia is in sixth place with 3 283 National Assembly votes.