Is There a Possible Flaw in the Hydrogen Project Planning?

During an online presentation by Hyphen and SLR1 in February, Hyphen CEO Marco Raffinetti made a puzzling assertion when describing weather conditions in the Lüderitz region.

Raffinetti said the wind is stronger at night and in winter, and therefore the combination of solar and wind energy generation is “perfect” as they complement each other.

In his words: “Namibia is in a unique position in that the wind picks up in the afternoon and blows through the evening in the //Kharas region… while the sun shines throughout the day… If you have a stable electricity supply when the wind and solar are negatively correlated, with sun during the day and wind at night, you have a stable electricity supply through your factory to extract the hydrogen effectively.”

The Hyphen CEO was speaking to NGOs about the Proposed Green Hydrogen Production and Supply Project in southern Namibia, touted as potentially creating 15 000 jobs during the construction phase and 3 000 permanent jobs during production.

Raffinetti has previously said the project will rely on both solar and wind generation to ensure a steady electricity supply to the electrolysers.

SEASONAL FACTORS

Any ‘Lüderitzbuchter’, or those who have visited Lüderitz more than once, should know from experience that sun and wind are positively (not negatively) correlated, that the wind blows harder during the day and is much stronger in summer than in winter.

This is also why the Lüderitz Speed Challenge windsurfing and kitesurfing speed championships are held in summer, and why speed records are achieved in late November and early December, usually between 13h00 and 15h00, including this year – with new men’s and women’s windsurfing world records.

The erroneous information seemingly comes from a 2021 report from NamPower and the Port of Rotterdam2, which states (p16) that “both daily, as well as seasonally, the wind and solar production complement each other, allowing for high capacity factors for the electrolysers.

“During the day and in summer the wind sags, but the sun shines bright.”

This statement is accompanied by two graphs on power generation by wind and solar PV, covering one unspecified week in January and one week in July, based on obscure data sets, some built through modelling which wrongly indicate that the wind blows more at night and in winter.

WIND REGIME

Because of its oceanographic importance, the region’s wind regime has been well documented and reliable data exists dating back to 1960.
In a 46-year time series analysis of the Dias Point weather station wind data (Peard 2007), the following was found:

• • There is a marked diurnal cycle of wind speed in all seasons, with a minimum during the night and a maximum in the early afternoon (between 13h00 and 16h30)
• • There is a marked seasonal cycle in wind speed, with a minimum in May, June and July, and a maximum in November, December and January
• • The calculated Wind Mixing Index (proportional to the cube of the wind speed) varies by a factor of 4.5 between the winter period (with values ~500) and summer (with values ~ 2250)

These results, based on actual measurements, contradict the arguments used in the project planning and show there is considerably less wind at night and in winter.
Since a wind turbine’s energy is also proportional to the cube of the wind speed, the last point is particularly relevant.

In winter, one should expect the power generation of a combination of solar PV and wind to be, at most, only 20% of that in summer; the nights are longer, the wind far less intense and, with the region being in the winter rainfall area, cloud cover can be expected to be significantly higher.

CONSEQUENCES

So, what are the possible consequences of such apparent errors being used in the planning of the Hyphen project?

The most important one is that the entire project would be far less efficient at producing hydrogen and ammonia than currently assumed.
This implies that the annual production (and export) figures presently advertised will not be met.

Therefore, the expected marketing price of the products could be far less competitive than expected.

Further, it is also possible that the operation could not become financially viable for several months each winter, with severe consequences for employment and promised job creation.

It is disturbing that the feasibility and planning of a multi-billion-dollar-scale project has ignored such basic information.

It is therefore of the utmost importance that incorrect information in these reports and in public presentations is corrected: The present discourse appears to mislead potential investors.

The feasibility of the entire project needs to be re-examined.

• • The author of this opinion piece has used a pseudonym for personal reasons; The Namibian has independently verified the author’s identity.
  – References: Hyphen–SLR1 Consulting. Proposed Green Hydrogen Production and Supply Project, Southern Namibia. Local and international NGO online meeting, February 2024; NamPower–Port of Rotterdam2. Pre–Feasibility Report. May 2021; KR Peard, 2007: Seasonal and interannual variability of wind driven upwelling at Lüderitz. MSc Thesis, University of Cape Town.