Some early pointers from SA vote count

JOHANNESBURG – South Africa’s ruling African National Congress will win a big election majority – as expected – while a breakaway party of ANC dissidents has failed to make a dramatic impact.

Party leader Jacob Zuma will become president with a strong popular mandate despite beating graft charges only on a technicality.ANC MEETSEXPECTATIONS* With fewer than a fifth of votes counted, the fact the ANC had more than 64 per cent made clear its dominance was unbroken.* Its share might increase as results are counted from populous urban districts with large black majorities and from more remote regions.* However, an ANC victory was never in doubt and the battle was as much as anything about whether the party could keep its two-thirds majority in parliament, which lets it change the constitution and further entrench its power.* It was still in danger of failing to reach that symbolically important barrier.COPE SUFFERS* The Congress of the People (COPE), formed by loyalists of ousted former President Thabo Mbeki, had failed to split the ANC in a big way with less than eight per cent of the vote so far. Even early results from Mbeki’s home province, Eastern Cape, showed it with only around 11 per cent there.* But while COPE has failed to make a dramatic impact, it might have enough votes to survive as a force for the future.* The official opposition Democratic Alliance, led by a woman, Helen Zille, appeared to have done somewhat better than some had expected, particularly in the Western Cape where it is traditionally strong. It had nearly 20 per cent.* But there was no sign the DA was making a bigger impact among black voters and its share of the vote could fall once votes are counted from the bigger urban constituencies and more remote areas, where the ANC tends to be strong.ANC GAINS INZUMA HEARTLAND* Although the DA and COPE had clearly made an impact, the ANC was able to make up some of the losses with its very good showing in KwaZulu-Natal, where it battered the once locally dominant Inkatha Freedom Party.* The ANC had a big boost in the province because it is the heartland of Zuma’s Zulu tribe, South Africa’s biggest. As expected, he will be chosen as president by parliament and take office in May.TWO-THIRDSIN DOUBT* If the ANC fails to get a two-thirds parliamentary majority, it would be as much symbolic as anything – it has never used its power to change the constitution and says it does not plan to. Absences among its MPs in parliament often reduce its effective majority in any case.* But losing the two-thirds would be taken by opposition parties as a victory that they would hope to build on and a sign that the once monolithic party can be challenged.* Markets would also welcome a reduction in the ANC’s majority, which would limit its ability to make sweeping policy changes unchallenged.BOOSTS ANDCONSTRAINTS* The big turnout for the election – estimated at more than 75 per cent – as well as the ANC’s showing will be taken by Zuma as signs of firm support for his presidency despite the graft case against him, dropped on a technicality this month.* It might give him a freer hand in making policy without having to rely too heavily on his core constituency on the left of the party. Trade union and communist allies want more ‘pro-poor’ policies that would worry investors.* Cabinet appointments are only going to happen after Zuma is sworn in early next month, which will keep markets watching out for the inclusion of Finance Minister Trevor Manuel as a sign of continuity in business friendly policies.* But Manuel and ANC bigwigs have made it clear that he is expected to stay for at least long enough to ensure a smooth succession – a period of two years has been suggested.* There is not much room for policy change anyway. South Africa’s mines and factories have been battered by the global downturn and it is probably already in its first recession for 17 years.* Zuma cannot afford measures that would stem foreign investment needed to fund a substantial current account deficit. – Nampa-Reuters