WTO forecasts faster trade growth despite oil price drag

GENEVA – The volume of world trade is set to grow by 8,5 per cent in real terms in 2004 despite the impact of rising oil prices on the world economy, the World Trade Organisation said yesterday.

Revealing partial advance data from its 2004 report on International Trade Statistics, the WTO said in a statement that the amount, driven by growth in Asia, Latin America and Africa, was a “significant improvement” over 2003. World merchandise trade grew by 4,5 per cent in 2003 in real terms, according to the statement.It noted “vigorous trade expansion” in the first half of 2004 that was expected to maintain momentum for faster overall global trade growth for the whole year.However, the WTO said that the increase in the price of oil and other commodities may dampen trade and overall output in 2005.”Growth in world trade in 2004 will not be adversely affected by higher oil prices to any great extent because we are seeing good growth in trade and output in China, Latin America and Africa,” said WTO Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi.”We have also seen stronger than expected economic recovery in Japan.Strong demand is behind rising prices for oil and other commodities, and markets appear to be handling this well,” he added.Trade in services in 2003 grew by 13 per cent in 2003 over the previous year to US$1,8 trillion (around N$11 trillion) in nominal terms.-Nampa-AFPWorld merchandise trade grew by 4,5 per cent in 2003 in real terms, according to the statement.It noted “vigorous trade expansion” in the first half of 2004 that was expected to maintain momentum for faster overall global trade growth for the whole year.However, the WTO said that the increase in the price of oil and other commodities may dampen trade and overall output in 2005.”Growth in world trade in 2004 will not be adversely affected by higher oil prices to any great extent because we are seeing good growth in trade and output in China, Latin America and Africa,” said WTO Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi.”We have also seen stronger than expected economic recovery in Japan.Strong demand is behind rising prices for oil and other commodities, and markets appear to be handling this well,” he added.Trade in services in 2003 grew by 13 per cent in 2003 over the previous year to US$1,8 trillion (around N$11 trillion) in nominal terms.-Nampa-AFP